NBA games

BOS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
122–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS25343726122
DAL29202731107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DAL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 35 24 6 3
Derrick White S 36 23 4 4
Jaylen Brown S 31 22 8 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 18 4 5
Jrue Holiday S 30 17 3 4
Payton Pritchard 27 6 9 4
Sam Hauser 14 6 1 1
Al Horford 19 4 6 1
Luke Kornet 17 2 10 5
Jordan Walsh 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 42 22 4 5
Quentin Grimes 26 20 7 2
Daniel Gafford S 33 19 15 2
P.J. Washington S 40 17 8 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 26 12 3 2
Jaden Hardy 15 10 3 3
Klay Thompson S 26 6 3 0
Maxi Kleber 11 1 1 1
Jazian Gortman 2 0 0 0
Brandon Williams 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Spencer Dinwiddie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
16%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
9%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
8 Kessler Edwards DAL
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
43%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.2 4.4 4.0
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.9 8.0 5.5
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.9 5.9 5.5
4 P.J. Washington DAL 18.6 10.0 3.1
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.4 7.0 2.1
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 15.3 3.7 4.4
7 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.3 7.7 1.6
8 Derrick White BOS 12.2 4.2 2.7
9 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.2 3.5 3.4
10 Klay Thompson DAL 11.8 3.3 2.3
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.6 4.7 3.2
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 10.2 2.3 1.9
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.1 2.9 3.1
14 Al Horford BOS 6.7 4.9 1.6
15 Sam Hauser BOS 5.8 2.7 0.9
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.6 4.8 0.9
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.5 2.5 2.0
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.1 2.5 0.7
19 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.7 2.8 0.9
20 Brandon Williams DAL 3.8 1.4 1.0
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.6 1.9 0.7
22 Jaden Springer BOS 3.2 1.3 0.7
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.7 1.7 0.6
24 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.5 1.3 0.6
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.4 1.5 0.6
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.6 0.8 0.3
27 Jazian Gortman DAL 1.3 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.