NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
104–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN31293113104
MIN40313824133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 35 25 2 5
Nikola Jokic S 32 20 3 11
Russell Westbrook S 28 13 6 4
Aaron Gordon 25 13 3 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 11 0 2
Christian Braun S 26 10 5 3
DeAndre Jordan 6 4 6 0
Julian Strawther 18 2 1 1
Peyton Watson 18 2 3 3
Zeke Nnaji 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 33 34 1 9
Julius Randle S 32 21 7 7
Rudy Gobert S 30 14 14 5
Jaden McDaniels S 32 13 8 4
Naz Reid 25 13 2 4
Rob Dillingham 20 10 5 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 10 0 0
Mike Conley S 23 9 1 5
Josh Minott 10 5 1 0
Jaylen Clark 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 16-foot jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Russell Westbrook DEN
10%
5 Christian Braun DEN
10%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
8 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
30%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.3 9.8 10.4
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.8 6.0 6.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.7 4.2 5.4
4 Russell Westbrook DEN 19.5 6.3 6.1
5 Julius Randle MIN 17.5 8.0 4.9
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.2 5.9 2.2
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.3 6.3 1.5
8 Christian Braun DEN 14.0 4.4 1.3
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.5 6.1 1.7
10 Julian Strawther DEN 10.7 2.1 1.8
11 Aaron Gordon DEN 10.3 3.7 1.8
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.1 9.4 1.8
13 Mike Conley MIN 8.8 2.9 3.8
14 Peyton Watson DEN 8.4 4.2 1.4
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.4 2.8 2.1
16 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.9 1.4 2.3
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.2 5.4 0.8
18 Dario Saric DEN 3.8 3.0 1.4
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.1 1.0 1.0
20 Luka Garza MIN 2.8 0.8 0.3
21 Josh Minott MIN 2.4 0.9 0.5
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.3 1.9 0.3
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.3 1.0 0.4
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.1 0.9 0.5
25 PJ Hall DEN 1.9 1.0 0.4
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.9 0.9 1.4
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.