NBA games

IND @ SA

NBA Accor Arena ·Final
136–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND33323338136
SA2426361298

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home SA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 28 28 3 4
Pascal Siakam S 31 23 11 3
Andrew Nembhard S 32 15 8 9
Myles Turner S 35 14 2 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 21 13 3 1
T.J. McConnell 16 12 5 5
Thomas Bryant 13 10 3 1
Aaron Nesmith 21 9 5 2
Obi Toppin 13 7 5 2
Jarace Walker 5 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 29 25 7 1
Victor Wembanyama S 36 20 12 2
Stephon Castle S 32 17 6 6
Chris Paul S 32 11 0 8
Devin Vassell S 33 6 4 2
Tre Jones 14 6 1 1
Keldon Johnson 11 4 4 0
Julian Champagnie 11 3 0 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 12 3 3 2
Jeremy Sochan 14 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
26%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.8 12.6 4.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.9 7.5 3.9
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.2 3.9 8.7
4 Devin Vassell SA 19.1 5.0 4.2
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.8 5.4 2.5
6 Myles Turner IND 16.4 6.4 1.7
7 Stephon Castle SA 14.8 3.1 3.8
8 Harrison Barnes SA 13.3 4.0 2.5
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.7 7.5 2.6
10 Keldon Johnson SA 12.3 4.6 1.5
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.9 3.7 5.6
12 Chris Paul SA 10.2 4.6 6.8
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.7 3.7 1.5
14 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.2 3.2 1.2
15 Thomas Bryant IND 8.1 4.2 1.2
16 Julian Champagnie SA 7.7 3.0 1.3
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.2 2.7 4.6
18 Jarace Walker IND 6.4 3.4 1.5
19 Ben Sheppard IND 6.3 2.7 1.3
20 Tre Jones SA 5.9 2.4 3.4
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 2.5 0.9
22 Zach Collins SA 3.2 2.2 0.8
23 Malaki Branham SA 3.2 1.1 0.8
24 Blake Wesley SA 3.2 1.6 2.3
25 RayJ Dennis IND 2.6 1.4 0.6
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.6 1.4 0.6
27 Charles Bassey SA 2.6 3.8 0.3
28 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.6 1.2 0.5
29 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.