NBA games

NO @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
126–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO29422926126
MEM33294334139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MEM
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 31 26 6 7
CJ McCollum S 34 22 1 4
Trey Murphy III S 33 22 6 4
Jordan Hawkins 32 20 2 1
Yves Missi S 30 10 5 3
Jose Alvarado 18 9 1 6
Javonte Green 22 8 5 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 20 5 4 2
Daniel Theis 16 4 4 2
Karlo Matkovic 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 29 5 7
Luke Kennard S 27 27 3 6
Desmond Bane S 34 20 0 14
Brandon Clarke 21 14 9 0
Zach Edey S 24 13 11 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. 25 13 3 3
GG Jackson 22 10 7 0
Jaylen Wells S 30 8 0 5
John Konchar 22 5 4 0
Jay Huff 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Zach Edey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
15%
2 CJ McCollum NO
13%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
6 Yves Missi NO
8%
7 Daniel Theis NO
7%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Zach Edey MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
34%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 25.2 5.5 4.1
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.2 4.8 6.8
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.0 7.4 3.4
4 CJ McCollum NO 23.2 4.0 3.5
5 Dejounte Murray NO 22.5 6.2 8.2
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.0 3.7 1.7
7 Luke Kennard MEM 12.1 4.2 3.6
8 Herbert Jones NO 8.7 3.0 3.9
9 Yves Missi NO 8.6 6.6 1.5
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.1 1.9 1.0
11 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.9 4.7 1.2
12 Jose Alvarado NO 7.7 1.8 3.3
13 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.1 2.9 3.2
14 Daniel Theis NO 6.7 5.7 1.5
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.7 3.8 3.0
16 Zach Edey MEM 6.2 5.5 1.0
17 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.8 3.2 2.1
18 Javonte Green NO 5.6 3.4 1.1
19 Jay Huff MEM 5.2 2.1 0.6
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.3 4.3 1.4
21 Jamal Cain NO 3.8 2.9 0.8
22 John Konchar MEM 3.6 4.7 1.1
23 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.8 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.