NBA games

POR @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
102–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR22282329102
CHA3024212297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home CHA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 37 27 5 2
Jerami Grant S 34 22 4 1
Deni Avdija S 34 18 5 4
Shaedon Sharpe 31 13 9 0
Toumani Camara S 34 11 6 1
Donovan Clingan S 18 4 13 4
Jabari Walker 14 3 3 0
Dalano Banton 16 2 1 1
Scoot Henderson 23 2 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nick Smith Jr. S 34 17 5 5
Josh Okogie 31 16 10 3
Mark Williams S 31 15 9 3
Josh Green S 34 14 5 2
Vasilije Micic S 33 12 0 3
KJ Simpson 19 7 5 1
Moussa Diabate 21 6 6 2
DaQuan Jeffries 17 6 4 0
Isaiah Wong 16 4 1 0
Cody Martin S 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anfernee Simons · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Anfernee Simons makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Donovan Clingan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
22%
2 Deni Avdija POR
13%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
4 Toumani Camara POR
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
10%
6 Robert Williams III POR
10%
7 Grant Williams CHA
9%
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
7%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
14%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Mark Williams CHA 20.7 11.6 2.9
2 Deni Avdija POR 19.6 8.5 4.2
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.0 4.7 3.7
4 Anfernee Simons POR 18.7 3.3 5.0
5 Scoot Henderson POR 16.6 3.3 5.7
6 Grant Williams CHA 12.5 6.2 2.1
7 Toumani Camara POR 12.2 4.9 2.4
8 Jerami Grant POR 11.6 4.0 1.9
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 8.1 2.7 1.8
10 Josh Green CHA 7.5 3.6 1.4
11 Cody Martin CHA 7.3 4.5 2.3
12 Dalano Banton POR 7.0 1.9 1.3
13 Kris Murray POR 6.5 3.0 1.4
14 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.4 2.9 0.8
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.1 2.3 3.1
16 Isaiah Wong CHA 5.9 2.2 1.8
17 Josh Okogie CHA 5.7 3.2 0.9
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.1 4.0 0.6
19 Donovan Clingan POR 4.2 5.5 0.8
20 Robert Williams III POR 4.1 6.1 0.8
21 Duop Reath POR 4.0 1.5 0.6
22 Jabari Walker POR 3.9 2.7 0.6
23 KJ Simpson CHA 3.7 1.5 1.4
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.5 1.2 0.5
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.2 0.6
26 Bryce McGowens POR 2.2 1.1 0.4
27 Taj Gibson CHA 1.6 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.