NBA games

BOS @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
96–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2325202896
LAL34331634117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home LAL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 27 22 7 2
Jaylen Brown S 33 17 8 3
Jayson Tatum S 30 16 6 5
Jaden Springer 9 10 2 1
Payton Pritchard 24 7 2 2
Sam Hauser 13 6 2 0
Neemias Queta 9 6 1 3
Luke Kornet 12 4 4 0
Jrue Holiday S 25 3 3 1
Derrick White S 19 3 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 31 24 8 3
Austin Reaves S 33 23 3 6
LeBron James S 31 20 14 6
Dalton Knecht 14 13 4 0
Gabe Vincent 26 12 1 4
Rui Hachimura S 28 10 7 2
Max Christie S 29 6 4 2
Jaxson Hayes 14 5 8 1
Shake Milton 3 2 0 3
Christian Koloko 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Max Christie makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
6 LeBron James LAL
9%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
8 Max Christie LAL
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
38%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.8 6.7 8.4
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.3 7.6 5.4
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.2 12.1 3.7
4 Austin Reaves LAL 21.5 4.1 7.1
5 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.0 5.9 5.4
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 16.6 6.6 1.8
7 Derrick White BOS 13.3 4.1 2.7
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.5 4.8 1.5
9 Max Christie LAL 10.9 3.3 1.7
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.7 2.9 3.0
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.9 4.4 3.5
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.2 3.5 1.2
13 Al Horford BOS 6.9 4.7 1.6
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.2 2.0 1.7
15 Sam Hauser BOS 5.6 2.5 0.8
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.6 5.6 1.2
17 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.4 2.1 0.8
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.2 2.4 0.5
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.8 3.3 0.7
20 Shake Milton LAL 4.8 1.5 1.6
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.5 1.7 0.6
22 Jaden Springer BOS 2.8 1.1 0.6
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.7 1.6 0.6
24 Cam Reddish LAL 2.7 1.8 0.6
25 Bronny James LAL 2.2 1.1 0.5
26 Christian Koloko LAL 2.0 3.0 0.3
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.9 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.