NBA games

CHI @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33311626106
GS30333137131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home GS
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 33 24 3 4
Josh Giddey S 34 16 11 3
Ayo Dosunmu 23 13 2 2
Jalen Smith 18 9 6 1
Jevon Carter 6 9 1 0
Nikola Vucevic S 30 9 6 4
Lonzo Ball S 23 9 3 4
Patrick Williams S 27 7 3 1
Matas Buzelis 11 3 4 0
Julian Phillips 14 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 21 4 7
Quinten Post 20 20 5 3
Gui Santos 27 19 7 2
Andrew Wiggins S 29 17 7 1
Moses Moody 25 16 3 4
Dennis Schroder 20 11 2 7
Brandin Podziemski 21 10 4 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 10 4 3 3
Kevon Looney 19 4 11 5
Lindy Waters III 6 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lonzo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Lonzo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
2 Zach LaVine CHI
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
4 Kevon Looney GS
10%
5 Stephen Curry GS
10%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
7 Gary Payton II GS
9%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
9 Lonzo Ball CHI
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
38%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 27.3 5.4 5.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.5 5.1 6.3
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.4 10.7 3.8
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 18.4 5.1 2.7
5 Buddy Hield GS 12.8 3.5 3.0
6 Dennis Schroder GS 12.8 2.6 4.9
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.7 3.9 5.0
8 Josh Giddey CHI 11.5 8.2 6.1
9 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.1 8.7 2.3
10 Lonzo Ball CHI 8.8 3.7 3.9
11 Moses Moody GS 8.8 2.7 1.6
12 Patrick Williams CHI 8.6 3.2 2.2
13 Jalen Smith CHI 8.1 5.1 1.2
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.6 2.9 2.2
15 Lindy Waters III GS 7.5 3.2 1.3
16 Gui Santos GS 6.2 3.1 1.7
17 Gary Payton II GS 6.1 3.8 1.6
18 Kevon Looney GS 6.0 6.2 1.4
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.7 1.8 1.1
20 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.8 2.7 0.6
21 Julian Phillips CHI 4.7 2.5 0.7
22 Quinten Post GS 4.2 1.7 0.9
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.4 0.9 0.7
24 Pat Spencer GS 3.3 1.7 1.5
25 Dalen Terry CHI 3.1 1.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.