NBA games

WSH @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
112–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH35282524112
UTAH31333331128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home UTAH
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Colby Jones 26 24 4 3
Alex Sarr S 23 22 9 2
Tristan Vukcevic S 21 17 5 0
AJ Johnson S 28 12 1 6
Jaylen Martin 31 11 7 1
Anthony Gill 24 10 1 2
JT Thor 30 8 3 3
Bub Carrington S 23 6 5 4
Jordan Poole S 20 2 2 5
Marcus Smart 14 0 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Filipowski S 21 21 4 2
Keyonte George 29 20 4 4
Collin Sexton S 19 18 3 5
Brice Sensabaugh 23 17 0 1
Isaiah Collier S 28 16 3 6
Jordan Clarkson 20 14 3 4
Johnny Juzang 22 9 6 2
Walker Kessler S 15 7 5 2
Oscar Tshiebwe 18 4 10 2
Cody Williams S 28 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
AJ Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"AJ Johnson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
17%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
15%
3 Walker Kessler UTAH
14%
4 Isaiah Collier UTAH
13%
5 AJ Johnson WSH
11%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
7 Micah Potter UTAH
10%
8 Cody Williams UTAH
9%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
0%
10 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 20.2 4.5 5.8
2 Jordan Poole WSH 20.1 3.7 4.3
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.4 3.9 4.3
4 Alex Sarr WSH 19.3 6.7 3.2
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 18.2 3.6 5.3
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 16.4 7.6 2.9
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.4 4.5 6.5
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 13.1 4.0 2.4
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.7 11.2 2.0
10 Bub Carrington WSH 12.1 4.4 5.5
11 Richaun Holmes WSH 10.7 7.9 2.1
12 Johnny Juzang UTAH 9.9 3.8 1.4
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.5 6.6 1.7
14 Marcus Smart WSH 9.4 2.2 2.6
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.1 4.4 1.2
16 Cody Williams UTAH 7.3 3.1 1.5
17 Micah Potter UTAH 6.2 4.4 1.3
18 AJ Johnson WSH 6.0 2.2 2.5
19 Jaylen Martin WSH 4.8 2.2 0.9
20 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.5 2.3 1.1
21 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 3.9 5.6 0.4
22 Anthony Gill WSH 3.8 1.6 0.8
23 Colby Jones WSH 3.3 2.3 0.8
24 JT Thor WSH 3.0 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.