NBA games

SAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
123–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC31213338123
DEN40343622132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DEN
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 24 6 1
Domantas Sabonis S 39 23 19 8
De'Aaron Fox S 40 17 5 6
Malik Monk S 31 15 2 7
Doug McDermott 11 15 0 0
Trey Lyles 22 12 9 1
Keegan Murray S 30 11 9 2
Keon Ellis 21 6 3 5
Kevin Huerter 6 0 0 0
Devin Carter 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 35 22 17
Christian Braun S 25 21 2 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 20 8 0
Jamal Murray S 40 18 6 5
Russell Westbrook S 32 18 5 3
Julian Strawther 19 9 0 2
Peyton Watson 25 6 6 1
Aaron Gordon 17 3 2 1
DeAndre Jordan 11 2 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Malik Monk SAC
11%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
7 Russell Westbrook DEN
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
9 Christian Braun DEN
8%
10 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
66%
Jumper
9%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.5 16.3 11.5
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.9 4.0 3.7
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.5 5.4 6.5
4 Malik Monk SAC 23.3 4.0 7.4
5 Jamal Murray DEN 22.0 4.3 5.6
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.9 15.6 7.7
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.5 6.9 6.4
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.4 6.4 1.7
9 Christian Braun DEN 13.2 4.6 1.5
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.7 4.5 2.1
11 Julian Strawther DEN 11.3 2.6 1.8
12 Keegan Murray SAC 11.0 5.6 1.4
13 Keon Ellis SAC 10.9 2.9 1.7
14 Peyton Watson DEN 9.4 4.5 1.5
15 Trey Lyles SAC 7.5 5.4 1.5
16 Kevin Huerter SAC 5.6 1.9 1.2
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.3 5.9 0.9
18 Devin Carter SAC 4.8 2.8 1.2
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.3 3.3 1.4
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.5 1.1
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.3 0.6 0.4
22 Alex Len SAC 3.2 2.7 1.0
23 Mason Jones SAC 3.2 1.9 1.3
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Jae Crowder SAC 2.5 1.5 0.4
26 PJ Hall DEN 2.4 1.5 0.5
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.4 0.5
28 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.8 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.