NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
121–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL33273130121
OKC34282132115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 28 1 3
Kyrie Irving S 39 24 3 4
P.J. Washington S 41 22 19 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 21 14 3 0
Daniel Gafford S 23 12 5 2
Quentin Grimes 27 9 1 3
Kessler Edwards S 23 7 4 2
Maxi Kleber 19 3 3 4
Brandon Williams 8 2 3 3
Markieff Morris 4 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 40 33 4 7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 40 31 1 7
Jaylin Williams S 26 12 6 2
Aaron Wiggins 28 9 3 1
Alex Caruso 21 8 3 5
Cason Wallace S 26 7 7 1
Luguentz Dort S 23 6 4 1
Kenrich Williams 20 6 4 0
Branden Carlson 4 3 0 0
Dillon Jones 12 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylin Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
20%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
6 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL
8%
7 Quentin Grimes DAL
8%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
9 Jaylin Williams OKC
6%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
93%
Jumper
4%
Layup
2%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 33.4 4.9 7.5
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.1 4.3 4.1
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.1 5.0 5.5
4 P.J. Washington DAL 16.4 8.7 2.6
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.8 3.8 4.2
6 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.8 3.8 3.3
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.6 4.4 2.3
8 Cason Wallace OKC 12.3 4.0 2.8
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.4 7.3 1.4
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 3.8 2.4
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 10.5 2.3 1.9
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.8 5.5 2.0
13 Alex Caruso OKC 6.5 2.7 2.3
14 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.3 2.5 1.6
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.9 1.2
16 Branden Carlson OKC 4.6 2.3 0.8
17 Brandon Williams DAL 3.7 1.3 0.8
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.5 2.7 0.8
19 Adam Flagler OKC 3.0 1.4 0.7
20 Dillon Jones OKC 2.7 1.3 0.7
21 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.2 1.2 0.4
22 Alex Ducas OKC 2.1 0.8 0.4
23 Markieff Morris DAL 1.4 0.7 0.3
24 Jazian Gortman DAL 1.2 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.