NBA games

MIA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
96–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA3025192296
MIL27442331125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MIL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware S 35 22 10 0
Tyler Herro S 32 21 3 9
Duncan Robinson S 28 12 1 4
Bam Adebayo S 29 11 14 3
Nikola Jovic 22 8 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 8 3 4
Terry Rozier 25 4 6 3
Pelle Larsson S 14 4 5 0
Haywood Highsmith 22 3 3 1
Keshad Johnson 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 36 29 10 11
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 25 12 4
Gary Trent Jr. 27 21 1 1
Bobby Portis 22 16 8 3
Brook Lopez S 35 11 3 1
Ryan Rollins 14 7 0 1
Tyler Smith 4 6 2 0
Taurean Prince S 25 3 4 4
Andre Jackson Jr. S 14 3 4 1
Stanley Umude 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
6 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
10 Kevin Love MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
4%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.7 13.9 6.9
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.2 4.2 6.5
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.5 5.7 4.9
4 Nikola Jovic MIA 14.2 4.5 4.4
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.0 8.5 3.6
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.9 5.3 4.1
7 Terry Rozier MIA 12.4 3.8 3.0
8 Brook Lopez MIL 11.7 5.1 1.9
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.6 7.6 1.2
10 Bobby Portis MIL 11.3 7.1 1.4
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.1 2.7 3.0
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.1 2.6 1.3
13 Taurean Prince MIL 7.0 2.4 1.7
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.8 3.3 1.4
15 Josh Richardson MIA 5.1 1.7 1.5
16 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.7 2.0 1.0
17 Alec Burks MIA 4.6 1.7 0.9
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.9 2.4 1.1
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.8 2.6 1.0
20 AJ Johnson MIL 3.8 1.7 1.8
21 Kevin Love MIA 3.4 2.2 0.9
22 Josh Christopher MIA 3.2 1.1 1.2
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.9 1.4 0.5
24 Tyler Smith MIL 2.7 1.6 0.6
25 Delon Wright MIL 2.7 1.3 1.4
26 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.3 1.0 0.5
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.2 1.8 0.4
28 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.0 0.4
29 Stanley Umude MIL 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.