NBA games

TOR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
122–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR35302928122
ATL25343030119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ATL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 39 25 6 3
Bruce Brown 20 18 5 4
Chris Boucher 18 17 2 0
Jakob Poeltl S 28 17 9 5
RJ Barrett S 36 15 6 3
Gradey Dick S 32 15 3 3
Kelly Olynyk 14 11 4 5
Davion Mitchell S 31 2 1 7
Jamal Shead 17 2 2 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic 32 23 3 0
Dyson Daniels S 37 22 8 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 30 19 12 4
Trae Young S 39 18 1 13
Vit Krejci S 25 13 2 2
Dominick Barlow 17 11 2 1
De'Andre Hunter 31 8 2 2
Jalen Johnson S 11 3 1 1
David Roddy 7 2 2 1
Garrison Mathews 11 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Trae Young ATL
9%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 David Roddy ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
32%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 26.8 3.6 10.8
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 8.2 6.2
3 RJ Barrett TOR 20.7 6.5 5.6
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.0 10.3 4.6
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.9 3.4 2.4
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.7 5.3 3.7
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.2 9.2 2.4
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.5 10.4 2.7
9 Gradey Dick TOR 11.9 3.0 2.0
10 Vit Krejci ATL 10.7 3.4 3.5
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.4 3.3 1.3
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 8.3 2.1 2.3
13 Chris Boucher TOR 7.8 3.9 0.8
14 Bruce Brown TOR 7.8 3.5 1.4
15 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.2 4.1 1.5
16 Jamal Shead TOR 7.0 1.4 3.4
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.0 2.7 1.6
18 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.6 1.8 3.2
19 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.0 2.5 1.9
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.6 1.9 1.0
21 David Roddy ATL 3.2 1.8 0.7
22 Orlando Robinson TOR 2.9 1.6 0.9
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.3 1.2 0.8
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.