NBA games

POR @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
101–79
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR18292727101
ORL2118202079

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home ORL
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 32 21 3 3
Toumani Camara S 34 16 6 3
Deni Avdija S 26 13 5 5
Jerami Grant S 34 12 4 4
Dalano Banton 13 10 0 3
Robert Williams III S 24 8 12 0
Shaedon Sharpe 24 7 4 0
Kris Murray 12 6 3 0
Scoot Henderson 14 4 0 2
Jabari Walker 19 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 24 20 4 0
Tristan da Silva 29 16 5 2
Anthony Black S 31 12 3 5
Jett Howard 17 10 3 0
Paolo Banchero S 33 8 9 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 7 2 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 23 3 6 2
Cory Joseph 13 2 2 0
Trevelin Queen 6 1 2 1
Caleb Houstan 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Black · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Anthony Black makes two point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
2 Deni Avdija POR
10%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
4 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
8 Anthony Black ORL
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
21%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 26.9 6.0 7.0
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.0 7.9 5.4
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.0 8.8 4.0
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.4 4.7 3.8
5 Anfernee Simons POR 19.1 3.3 5.1
6 Scoot Henderson POR 17.3 3.9 5.5
7 Cole Anthony ORL 16.9 4.9 4.3
8 Jerami Grant POR 13.3 3.7 2.0
9 Anthony Black ORL 12.2 3.4 3.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.1 4.5 2.2
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 12.0 2.4 2.1
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.3 7.0 2.3
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.1 5.2 1.8
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.5 5.5 0.9
15 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.7 2.4 1.3
16 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.4 2.9 1.8
17 Dalano Banton POR 6.3 1.9 1.3
18 Kris Murray POR 6.0 2.9 1.5
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.7 1.2 0.9
20 Donovan Clingan POR 4.6 5.5 0.7
21 Robert Williams III POR 4.1 4.3 0.7
22 Cory Joseph ORL 4.0 1.3 1.1
23 Jabari Walker POR 3.8 2.3 0.5
24 Duop Reath POR 2.7 0.8 0.4
25 Justin Minaya POR 1.5 0.6 0.3
26 Bryce McGowens POR 1.4 0.4 0.2
27 Rayan Rupert POR 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.