NBA games

SA @ IND

NBA Accor Arena ·Final
140–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30304535140
IND29282330110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home IND
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 32 30 11 6
Devin Vassell S 31 25 3 4
Harrison Barnes S 26 20 7 3
Jeremy Sochan 18 13 9 3
Tre Jones 18 11 4 8
Stephon Castle S 24 9 0 3
Keldon Johnson 20 9 3 1
Julian Champagnie 17 7 6 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 11 6 5 3
Chris Paul S 24 3 8 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 25 24 3 0
Pascal Siakam S 28 18 4 6
Myles Turner S 26 14 3 0
Obi Toppin 19 13 3 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 30 13 2 7
Thomas Bryant 14 9 3 0
Andrew Nembhard S 27 8 4 8
T.J. McConnell 16 4 1 4
Aaron Nesmith 19 3 3 1
Ben Sheppard 19 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 Devin Vassell SA
11%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
5 Myles Turner IND
9%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
7 Stephon Castle SA
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.9 11.6 4.5
2 Pascal Siakam IND 21.8 7.7 3.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.9 4.1 8.7
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.7 5.2 4.0
5 Myles Turner IND 16.4 6.7 1.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.4 5.6 2.7
7 Harrison Barnes SA 13.7 3.7 2.1
8 Stephon Castle SA 13.5 3.1 3.5
9 Keldon Johnson SA 12.3 4.8 1.3
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.3 7.6 2.4
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.7 3.5 5.0
12 Chris Paul SA 9.8 4.1 7.5
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.8 2.8 0.9
14 Obi Toppin IND 7.6 3.4 1.2
15 T.J. McConnell IND 6.8 2.6 4.5
16 Julian Champagnie SA 6.4 2.7 1.1
17 Thomas Bryant IND 6.2 3.7 1.0
18 Jarace Walker IND 5.9 3.1 1.1
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.5 2.7 1.0
20 Tre Jones SA 4.5 2.2 2.7
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 1.7 0.6
22 Charles Bassey SA 3.0 4.0 0.5
23 Zach Collins SA 2.7 1.9 0.7
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.5 1.0 0.6
25 Malaki Branham SA 2.4 0.7 0.6
26 Blake Wesley SA 2.4 1.3 1.8
27 RayJ Dennis IND 1.7 0.8 0.4
28 Johnny Furphy IND 1.7 0.9 0.3
29 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.