NBA games

BOS @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
117–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BOS3327212214117
LAC3425251910113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home LAC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 39 25 2 6
Jayson Tatum S 43 24 7 8
Derrick White S 42 20 6 4
Sam Hauser S 25 15 4 0
Neemias Queta 23 11 4 1
Payton Pritchard 28 9 4 3
Jaden Springer 20 8 2 0
Jordan Walsh 9 3 1 1
Luke Kornet S 30 2 2 1
Baylor Scheierman 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick Jones Jr. S 44 29 7 3
Kevin Porter Jr. S 39 26 7 7
Amir Coffey S 44 24 3 2
Terance Mann S 45 11 5 7
Bones Hyland 17 8 2 2
Jordan Miller 16 6 1 0
Mo Bamba S 17 5 3 0
Kobe Brown 38 4 11 2
Cam Christie 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Terance Mann makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
24%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
13%
4 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
11%
5 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Mo Bamba LAC
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
48%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.5 7.8 5.6
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.6 6.1 5.4
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 16.8 6.8 1.8
4 Derrick White BOS 12.8 4.3 2.6
5 Amir Coffey LAC 11.3 2.8 1.4
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.7 2.7 3.0
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.4 4.5 3.6
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.5 3.2 0.9
9 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 7.4 2.7 3.6
10 Al Horford BOS 7.1 4.7 1.7
11 Terance Mann LAC 7.1 2.1 1.1
12 Bones Hyland LAC 6.4 1.4 1.9
13 Sam Hauser BOS 5.6 2.4 0.9
14 Luke Kornet BOS 5.5 5.3 1.2
15 Mo Bamba LAC 4.9 4.9 0.6
16 Kris Dunn LAC 4.9 2.4 2.0
17 Neemias Queta BOS 4.4 2.3 0.5
18 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 2.3 0.8
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.4 1.6 0.6
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.2 1.7 0.6
21 Jordan Miller LAC 3.1 1.7 0.9
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.0 1.6 0.5
23 Kai Jones LAC 2.9 2.0 0.6
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 1.1 0.5
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.2 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.