NBA games

GS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
117–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS24412032117
SAC20283738123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SAC
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 38 25 6 3
Buddy Hield S 25 17 3 1
Gui Santos 23 16 5 2
Stephen Curry S 34 14 3 12
Moses Moody 26 11 2 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 24 11 8 2
Gary Payton II S 13 8 6 1
Dennis Schroder 21 7 3 5
Quinten Post 15 5 6 1
Lindy Waters III 14 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 39 32 5 2
Domantas Sabonis S 39 26 18 3
Malik Monk S 38 20 4 9
De'Aaron Fox S 36 14 5 5
Keegan Murray S 34 13 3 1
Keon Ellis 21 8 0 2
Trey Lyles 17 7 2 1
Devin Carter 4 3 0 0
Kevin Huerter 6 0 0 0
Alex Len 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Buddy Hield · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
2 Malik Monk SAC
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
6 Stephen Curry GS
10%
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
8 Dennis Schroder GS
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
10 Gary Payton II GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
58%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.1 5.5 6.7
2 Malik Monk SAC 23.7 4.1 7.6
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.5 4.1 3.7
4 Stephen Curry GS 23.2 5.4 5.2
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.3 14.2 7.6
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.8 5.0 2.2
7 Dennis Schroder GS 12.5 2.4 4.4
8 Buddy Hield GS 11.4 3.1 2.5
9 Keegan Murray SAC 11.4 6.3 1.4
10 Keon Ellis SAC 11.2 3.2 1.8
11 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.9 8.0 2.3
12 Moses Moody GS 8.5 2.6 1.4
13 Trey Lyles SAC 8.2 5.7 1.5
14 Lindy Waters III GS 6.8 3.1 1.0
15 Kevon Looney GS 5.4 5.6 1.4
16 Gary Payton II GS 5.3 3.6 1.2
17 Kevin Huerter SAC 5.2 2.1 1.3
18 Gui Santos GS 4.7 2.5 1.3
19 Devin Carter SAC 3.9 2.9 1.0
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.9 0.8 0.6
21 Quinten Post GS 3.5 1.3 0.6
22 Pat Spencer GS 3.4 1.7 1.4
23 Mason Jones SAC 3.3 2.0 1.3
24 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.7 1.0
25 Jae Crowder SAC 2.8 1.7 0.5
26 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.3 0.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.