NBA games

UTAH @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
114–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH29263425114
OKC31263828123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home OKC
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 26 22 12 1
Collin Sexton S 32 18 4 9
Lauri Markkanen S 30 17 6 0
Walker Kessler S 31 17 15 1
Keyonte George S 32 15 5 10
Isaiah Collier 23 8 1 2
Drew Eubanks 17 6 3 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 16 6 1 0
Elijah Harkless 18 5 2 1
Kyle Filipowski 13 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 54 8 5
Jalen Williams S 36 25 3 2
Cason Wallace 36 13 4 1
Aaron Wiggins S 23 10 4 1
Alex Caruso 20 7 3 5
Branden Carlson 11 6 2 0
Luguentz Dort S 32 5 5 4
Jaylin Williams S 20 3 2 1
Ousmane Dieng 9 0 1 0
Kenrich Williams 13 0 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylin Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jaylin Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
5 John Collins UTAH
9%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
8%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
57%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 35.1 4.5 7.7
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.2 4.2 4.9
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.9 5.3 5.9
4 Keyonte George UTAH 19.2 4.2 5.7
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.8 4.3 1.7
6 John Collins UTAH 16.9 6.6 2.6
7 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.7 10.9 1.5
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.1 4.4 2.4
9 Cason Wallace OKC 11.1 3.8 2.8
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 10.7 4.0 6.8
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.4 3.2 1.9
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 10.2 2.8 2.0
13 Drew Eubanks UTAH 8.6 6.1 1.3
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.6 5.7 1.6
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.3 5.4 2.0
16 Alex Caruso OKC 5.6 2.6 2.1
17 Patty Mills UTAH 5.4 1.6 1.4
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.2 2.1 0.9
19 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.0 1.9 0.7
20 Branden Carlson OKC 3.4 1.7 0.7
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.0 1.5 0.7
22 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.8 4.7 0.2
23 Dillon Jones OKC 2.8 1.5 0.9
24 Alex Ducas OKC 2.3 0.9 0.6
25 Adam Flagler OKC 2.2 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.