NBA games

MIL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Postponed
Tip-off

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NO
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Box score available after tip-off.

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
15%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
12%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Daniel Theis NO
9%
7 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
9 Javonte Green NO
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
40%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.0 13.8 6.7
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.9 4.3 6.3
3 Trey Murphy III NO 23.9 5.5 4.0
4 CJ McCollum NO 22.0 4.1 3.5
5 Dejounte Murray NO 21.5 6.3 7.9
6 Khris Middleton MIL 13.0 4.1 4.6
7 Brook Lopez MIL 12.0 5.1 1.9
8 Bobby Portis MIL 11.5 7.2 1.5
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.5 2.8 1.4
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.3 2.0 1.1
11 Jose Alvarado NO 8.0 2.1 3.2
12 Taurean Prince MIL 7.4 2.7 1.8
13 Daniel Theis NO 7.0 5.9 1.6
14 Javonte Green NO 6.1 3.7 1.2
15 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.3 2.4 1.1
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.8 4.5 1.6
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.5 2.9 1.1
18 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.4 2.4 0.7
19 Stanley Umude MIL 2.2 1.2 0.5
20 Chris Livingston MIL 2.1 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.