NBA games

CHA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
120–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA25233636120
MEM38402826132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MEM
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 33 38 9 5
LaMelo Ball S 34 22 8 6
Miles Bridges S 34 17 5 6
Nick Smith Jr. S 31 9 1 5
Josh Green S 24 8 0 1
Seth Curry 6 6 0 0
Josh Okogie 13 6 0 0
Isaiah Wong 6 6 1 1
Cody Martin 23 5 4 1
Moussa Diabate 15 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 34 24 2 8
Luke Kennard 26 23 4 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 22 6 1
Ja Morant S 32 16 4 13
Jaylen Wells S 26 13 3 2
Jay Huff 7 13 2 0
Brandon Clarke 22 9 3 3
Zach Edey S 19 7 6 1
GG Jackson 10 3 2 0
Santi Aldama 19 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
20%
2 Mark Williams CHA
14%
3 Ja Morant MEM
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
8 Zach Edey MEM
7%
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
6%
10 Josh Green CHA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
39%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 26.3 5.4 8.8
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 25.7 7.6 3.5
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.8 5.1 6.5
4 Miles Bridges CHA 23.7 8.0 5.1
5 Ja Morant MEM 22.7 4.3 7.1
6 Mark Williams CHA 18.9 11.4 2.9
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.3 3.6 1.7
8 Luke Kennard MEM 11.9 3.9 3.5
9 Santi Aldama MEM 11.1 5.6 1.9
10 Cody Martin CHA 8.0 4.3 2.6
11 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.4 2.5 1.5
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.4 4.5 1.0
13 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.3 2.8 3.1
14 Josh Green CHA 7.2 3.6 1.5
15 Seth Curry CHA 6.8 1.8 1.2
16 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.5 1.9 3.1
17 Zach Edey MEM 6.3 5.6 1.0
18 Jay Huff MEM 6.0 1.8 0.8
19 Josh Okogie CHA 5.6 3.0 0.9
20 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.9 3.6 0.7
21 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 4.8 2.2 0.8
22 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.5 1.6 1.4
23 John Konchar MEM 3.7 4.6 1.1
24 Taj Gibson CHA 1.8 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.