NBA games

CLE @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
108–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE32213025108
HOU39223315109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home HOU
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 33 26 2 5
Donovan Mitchell S 35 19 3 3
Ty Jerome 25 18 4 0
Jarrett Allen S 32 17 13 3
Dean Wade S 31 8 8 3
Georges Niang 20 8 5 0
Sam Merrill 23 7 5 3
Max Strus S 23 5 1 5
Tristan Thompson 13 0 3 3
Jaylon Tyson 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 40 26 3 5
Alperen Sengun S 29 18 11 4
Amen Thompson S 36 16 16 4
Cam Whitmore 21 16 2 1
Tari Eason 20 12 6 2
Jalen Green S 33 10 2 5
Jae'Sean Tate 10 4 2 1
Dillon Brooks S 32 4 0 1
Steven Adams 19 3 11 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
6 Darius Garland CLE
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
8 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
7%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
28%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 25.1 4.6 3.7
2 Darius Garland CLE 23.8 3.0 7.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.9 10.0 5.6
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.2 4.3 4.1
5 Amen Thompson HOU 16.7 10.2 3.7
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.2 3.5 5.9
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.3 10.1 1.9
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.0 4.4 1.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.0 5.1 1.6
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.4 3.3 2.0
11 Tari Eason HOU 10.3 5.5 1.4
12 Max Strus CLE 9.4 3.4 3.2
13 Ty Jerome CLE 8.3 2.5 2.8
14 Georges Niang CLE 8.1 2.7 1.4
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.5 4.4 1.4
16 Sam Merrill CLE 5.4 1.6 1.2
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.0 1.7 1.2
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.9 2.6 1.0
19 Jeff Green HOU 4.0 1.3 0.5
20 Steven Adams HOU 3.7 5.9 1.0
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.4 2.0 0.8
22 Nate Williams HOU 3.2 1.0 0.7
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.8 1.9 0.9
25 Jock Landale HOU 2.6 2.1 0.6
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.3 3.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.