NBA games

MIN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
115–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN17383129115
DAL22312932114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DAL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden McDaniels S 40 27 8 0
Anthony Edwards S 37 21 5 7
Mike Conley S 32 18 5 8
Julius Randle S 34 16 6 3
Rudy Gobert S 30 14 6 2
Naz Reid 27 12 6 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 32 7 3 4
Rob Dillingham 9 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 38 36 4 9
P.J. Washington S 36 30 7 2
Daniel Gafford S 33 14 12 2
Maxi Kleber 16 10 2 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 32 9 3 1
Quentin Grimes S 36 5 4 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 25 4 4 2
Kessler Edwards 15 4 2 1
Brandon Williams 9 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
16%
2 Julius Randle MIN
15%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
33%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.5 6.2 5.9
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.4 4.3 4.1
3 Julius Randle MIN 17.8 8.5 4.8
4 Naz Reid MIN 16.7 5.8 2.1
5 P.J. Washington DAL 15.0 8.2 2.6
6 Quentin Grimes DAL 13.2 4.1 3.4
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.7 3.7 4.4
8 Klay Thompson DAL 12.1 3.4 2.5
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.6 6.1 1.5
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.6 6.9 1.3
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.4 10.0 1.7
12 Mike Conley MIN 7.3 2.7 3.4
13 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.9 1.6 2.2
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.5 2.9 2.0
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.4 2.5 1.7
16 Luka Garza MIN 3.9 1.4 0.5
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.7 2.7 0.8
18 Josh Minott MIN 2.8 1.2 0.5
19 Brandon Williams DAL 2.8 0.9 0.5
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.7 1.2 0.4
21 Joe Ingles MIN 2.5 1.2 1.6
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.4 2.1 0.3
23 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.3 1.0 0.5
24 Markieff Morris DAL 1.6 0.7 0.4
25 Jazian Gortman DAL 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.