NBA games

PHX @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
108–84
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28262826108
BKN1626261684

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home BKN
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 32 2 6
Kevin Durant S 30 24 8 3
Nick Richards S 22 8 15 0
Tyus Jones S 26 8 2 7
Grayson Allen 24 8 2 4
Monte Morris 18 7 2 2
Ryan Dunn S 23 6 2 3
Mason Plumlee 17 6 5 1
Royce O'Neale 23 3 4 0
Damion Lee 5 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Johnson S 30 20 7 2
Jalen Wilson S 34 15 4 3
Dariq Whitehead 15 12 2 0
Nic Claxton S 26 10 12 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 22 8 9 2
Noah Clowney S 34 7 5 0
Tosan Evbuomwan 26 6 3 2
Reece Beekman 21 4 3 3
Tyrese Martin S 31 2 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Dunn · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:10 Q1
"Ryan Dunn makes two point shot (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
14%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 D'Angelo Russell BKN
10%
6 Nick Richards PHX
9%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
8 Keon Johnson BKN
8%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
13%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.9 4.5 6.9
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.3 6.3 5.1
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 21.8 4.5 3.7
4 D'Angelo Russell BKN 14.4 3.4 7.3
5 Keon Johnson BKN 13.0 3.3 3.8
6 Tyrese Martin BKN 12.9 4.9 2.6
7 Noah Clowney BKN 12.2 4.8 1.7
8 Grayson Allen PHX 11.5 3.1 2.2
9 Ryan Dunn PHX 11.3 5.3 1.3
10 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 11.2 4.6 1.8
11 Nic Claxton BKN 10.4 8.3 1.9
12 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.2 3.7 1.8
13 Tyus Jones PHX 10.0 2.5 5.1
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.1 7.0 1.9
15 Trendon Watford BKN 8.9 3.1 1.6
16 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.6 1.8 2.4
17 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.3 4.0 1.9
18 Nick Richards PHX 6.8 5.8 1.1
19 Monte Morris PHX 5.6 1.7 1.4
20 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.8 3.2 1.3
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 6.3 1.7
22 Reece Beekman BKN 4.0 1.4 1.6
23 Bol Bol PHX 3.9 1.7 0.6
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.9 1.4 0.9
25 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.1 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.