NBA games

DET @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
114–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET36332817114
ATL26252429104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ATL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 29 6 11
Malik Beasley 23 19 2 1
Ausar Thompson S 24 16 1 1
Jalen Duren S 26 14 12 2
Simone Fontecchio 16 13 2 2
Tobias Harris S 37 9 2 1
Marcus Sasser 14 5 2 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 32 3 6 2
Ronald Holland II 12 2 5 0
Isaiah Stewart 20 2 12 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 33 20 10 2
Jalen Johnson S 38 17 9 4
Clint Capela 21 16 10 0
Trae Young S 40 13 2 9
De'Andre Hunter 30 10 0 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 9 10 3
Vit Krejci S 23 9 1 3
Garrison Mathews 10 8 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 19 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 11-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Trae Young ATL
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
9%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
22%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.8 6.2 9.6
2 Trae Young ATL 26.9 3.4 11.0
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.5 10.4 4.4
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.7 3.9 2.4
5 Tobias Harris DET 15.5 5.9 3.2
6 Malik Beasley DET 15.0 2.7 2.1
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.6 5.0 3.8
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 14.1 2.6 1.8
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.2 9.9 2.4
10 Jalen Duren DET 12.0 10.6 2.3
11 Vit Krejci ATL 10.4 3.5 3.6
12 Ausar Thompson DET 8.9 5.7 1.8
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 8.9 2.0 2.3
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.6 8.3 1.2
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.5 2.7 1.8
16 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.0 4.2 1.5
17 Ronald Holland II DET 6.6 2.2 1.3
18 Marcus Sasser DET 6.3 2.0 2.5
19 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.9 3.0 1.2
20 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 6.2 1.4
21 Paul Reed DET 3.6 2.8 1.1
22 David Roddy ATL 3.2 1.8 0.7
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.3 1.5 0.8
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.