NBA games

CHI @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
112–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI25233628112
LAC1832163399

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home LAC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 34 35 3 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 23 18 1 3
Josh Giddey S 40 18 10 9
Nikola Vucevic S 34 14 8 4
Patrick Williams S 26 8 5 3
Matas Buzelis 13 5 4 0
Lonzo Ball S 26 5 4 3
Julian Phillips 14 4 6 0
Jalen Smith 14 4 7 1
Dalen Terry 16 1 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 38 27 2 2
James Harden S 36 17 5 10
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 12 6 0
Terance Mann 22 12 2 0
Mo Bamba S 15 10 7 0
Amir Coffey 33 8 4 2
Kobe Brown 11 5 3 4
Kris Dunn S 15 2 1 1
Kai Jones 1 2 0 0
Jordan Miller 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mo Bamba · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Mo Bamba makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell LAC
17%
2 Zach LaVine CHI
16%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
14%
4 Coby White CHI
12%
5 James Harden LAC
12%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
11%
7 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
9 Jalen Smith CHI
0%
10 Dalen Terry CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 27.8 5.5 5.5
2 James Harden LAC 22.6 4.4 9.4
3 Norman Powell LAC 22.4 4.2 2.5
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.7 11.0 3.7
5 Coby White CHI 21.0 3.8 5.4
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.5 3.8 4.9
7 Amir Coffey LAC 12.1 2.9 1.5
8 Josh Giddey CHI 10.1 7.5 5.4
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.2 3.3 1.2
10 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.0 3.1 4.0
11 Lonzo Ball CHI 8.5 3.5 3.7
12 Patrick Williams CHI 8.4 3.0 2.1
13 Jalen Smith CHI 8.0 4.6 1.2
14 Bones Hyland LAC 7.4 1.6 2.2
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.6 2.1 1.2
16 Kris Dunn LAC 6.1 2.8 2.7
17 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.8 3.3 0.5
18 Mo Bamba LAC 4.8 4.6 0.7
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.5 2.0 0.8
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.3 2.1 0.5
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.2 3.0 1.1
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.7 1.9 0.7
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 1.4 1.0
24 Kobe Brown LAC 3.6 2.2 0.6
25 Kai Jones LAC 2.7 1.8 0.5
26 Jordan Miller LAC 2.7 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.