NBA games

WSH @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
88–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2326281188
LAL29303022111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home LAL
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 32 17 6 4
Jordan Poole S 34 15 7 3
Corey Kispert 31 15 4 2
Kyle Kuzma S 28 12 9 5
Alex Sarr S 27 10 6 2
Jonas Valanciunas 19 8 7 2
Kyshawn George 31 8 2 5
Bub Carrington S 29 3 4 2
Justin Champagnie 3 0 1 0
Anthony Gill 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 32 29 16 5
LeBron James S 36 21 10 13
Dorian Finney-Smith 22 16 2 0
Austin Reaves S 36 16 2 8
Rui Hachimura S 26 9 5 0
Jaxson Hayes 19 8 3 0
Max Christie S 31 5 5 1
Gabe Vincent 25 3 2 3
Dalton Knecht 8 3 2 0
Trey Jemison III 2 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:16 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes 1-foot driving dunk (Alexandre Sarr assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
17%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
8 Max Christie LAL
8%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
45%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.3 6.0 9.5
2 Anthony Davis LAL 25.3 12.6 4.1
3 Austin Reaves LAL 23.6 4.3 8.7
4 Jordan Poole WSH 21.3 4.2 4.5
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH 15.3 5.4 3.1
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.6 4.9 1.9
7 Max Christie LAL 12.9 3.2 2.3
8 Alex Sarr WSH 12.4 7.4 2.4
9 Corey Kispert WSH 10.8 2.7 1.8
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.4 8.0 1.7
11 Bub Carrington WSH 9.8 3.7 3.4
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.7 3.6 2.8
13 Kyshawn George WSH 8.5 3.3 2.2
14 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.7 3.7 1.5
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.6 2.2 2.0
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.3 2.4 1.3
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.4 2.7 1.0
18 Shake Milton LAL 5.8 1.8 2.0
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.5 3.8 1.0
20 Cam Reddish LAL 3.8 2.1 0.8
21 Bronny James LAL 3.6 1.6 0.8
22 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.9 1.2 0.4
23 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.9 2.6 0.6
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.0 0.4
25 Johnny Davis WSH 2.2 1.1 0.4
26 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.0 2.3 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.