NBA games

PHI @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
109–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27402715109
DEN35424027144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DEN
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 34 28 2 10
Guerschon Yabusele 24 22 3 3
Paul George S 28 11 5 9
Justin Edwards 28 11 3 1
Eric Gordon S 19 9 0 3
Andre Drummond S 20 8 5 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 8 3 2
Ricky Council IV 18 5 0 3
Adem Bona 16 3 3 1
Reggie Jackson 10 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 27 13 10
Julian Strawther 26 23 2 2
Christian Braun S 25 20 2 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 19 6 1
Aaron Gordon 22 19 0 3
Russell Westbrook S 25 11 7 9
Jamal Murray S 33 9 6 7
DeAndre Jordan 13 4 6 1
PJ Hall 4 4 3 1
Hunter Tyson 6 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 11-foot two point shot (Paul George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
3 Russell Westbrook DEN
8%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
6 Paul George PHI
8%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
6%
8 Adem Bona PHI
6%
9 Andre Drummond PHI
6%
10 Christian Braun DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
37%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.5 13.5 11.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.6 3.5 6.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.6 4.1 5.9
4 Paul George PHI 20.0 5.6 4.9
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.7 6.8 6.7
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.2 6.2 1.9
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.6 5.9 2.2
8 Christian Braun DEN 12.9 5.0 1.7
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.4 5.0 2.0
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.4 5.2 2.0
11 Julian Strawther DEN 10.5 2.5 1.7
12 Peyton Watson DEN 9.6 4.5 1.7
13 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.8 2.8 1.5
14 Eric Gordon PHI 7.1 1.9 1.5
15 Justin Edwards PHI 7.0 2.9 1.4
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.5 6.1 0.9
17 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.1 1.9 1.7
18 Adem Bona PHI 4.8 3.8 0.8
19 Dario Saric DEN 4.8 3.4 1.6
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.7 5.3 0.9
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.3 1.4 1.7
22 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.5 1.1 0.9
23 Pete Nance PHI 3.3 1.7 0.7
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.1 0.6
25 PJ Hall DEN 2.5 1.3 0.6
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.