NBA games

ORL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
93–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL3713202393
TOR24214024109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home TOR
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 32 26 12 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 20 1 1
Anthony Black S 36 17 7 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 10 10 3
Tristan da Silva S 38 9 5 4
Trevelin Queen 23 5 3 1
Caleb Houstan 28 3 8 2
Cory Joseph 12 3 0 1
Jonathan Isaac 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 28 19 8 2
Scottie Barnes S 34 17 11 8
Gradey Dick S 28 17 1 1
Bruce Brown 25 15 5 5
Kelly Olynyk 22 12 3 3
Jakob Poeltl S 19 8 3 0
Davion Mitchell S 25 7 2 6
Jamal Shead 22 6 2 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 18 3 3 1
A.J. Lawson 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
10%
7 Cole Anthony ORL
10%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
44%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.1 7.7 5.6
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.6 8.5 5.7
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.2 6.5 5.9
4 Cole Anthony ORL 17.3 4.8 4.5
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.4 10.1 2.6
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.2 6.9 2.4
7 Gradey Dick TOR 11.3 3.1 1.8
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.9 2.2 2.4
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.9 3.0 3.3
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.1 5.2 1.8
11 Chris Boucher TOR 8.1 4.1 0.7
12 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.9 5.4 1.1
13 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.6 1.9 1.3
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.5 1.2 3.3
15 Bruce Brown TOR 6.3 3.2 1.0
16 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.0 2.5 1.8
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.0 1.3 1.0
18 Davion Mitchell TOR 5.7 1.7 3.1
19 Kelly Olynyk TOR 5.0 1.9 1.5
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.6 1.1 0.9
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.6 1.4 0.9
22 Cory Joseph ORL 3.6 1.3 1.1
23 Gary Harris ORL 3.1 0.9 0.6
24 A.J. Lawson TOR 2.3 0.8 0.3
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 0.9 0.7
26 Orlando Robinson TOR 1.6 0.9 0.6
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 1.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.