NBA games

POR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
116–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR34273619116
MIA38172230107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIA
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 35 24 4 3
Deandre Ayton S 34 22 15 2
Jerami Grant S 34 18 2 1
Deni Avdija S 39 16 10 5
Shaedon Sharpe 28 12 5 4
Dalano Banton 17 11 3 1
Scoot Henderson S 34 11 2 8
Robert Williams III 14 2 4 0
Jabari Walker 6 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 36 22 5 4
Kel'el Ware S 39 20 15 0
Jimmy Butler III S 27 13 4 8
Nikola Jovic 35 12 4 8
Bam Adebayo S 22 12 10 0
Pelle Larsson 15 11 0 0
Terry Rozier S 22 9 1 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 8 6 3
Alec Burks 13 0 0 0
Haywood Highsmith 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
8%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
7%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
8 Robert Williams III POR
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
30%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.1 5.7 5.2
2 Deni Avdija POR 20.4 8.7 4.5
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.3 4.8 3.9
4 Anfernee Simons POR 19.9 3.4 5.8
5 Scoot Henderson POR 17.7 4.3 6.3
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.4 9.2 4.8
7 Jimmy Butler III MIA 16.3 6.0 4.6
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 14.3 4.4 4.1
9 Terry Rozier MIA 13.7 4.4 3.7
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.6 5.1 4.2
11 Jerami Grant POR 12.4 4.0 2.2
12 Deandre Ayton POR 12.4 10.9 1.7
13 Toumani Camara POR 12.4 4.7 2.4
14 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.1 6.2 1.4
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.3 2.4 3.2
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.9 3.7 1.7
17 Kris Murray POR 6.7 3.3 1.7
18 Dalano Banton POR 6.4 2.0 1.7
19 Josh Richardson MIA 5.4 1.9 1.6
20 Donovan Clingan POR 5.2 5.9 0.9
21 Robert Williams III POR 4.6 4.8 1.0
22 Josh Christopher MIA 4.4 1.6 1.5
23 Jabari Walker POR 4.3 2.5 0.6
24 Alec Burks MIA 4.3 1.6 0.8
25 Kevin Love MIA 3.9 2.4 1.0
26 Duop Reath POR 3.8 1.4 0.8
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.1 2.4 0.7
28 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.6 1.6 0.7
29 Justin Minaya POR 2.5 1.1 0.6
30 Bryce McGowens POR 2.4 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.