NBA games

UTAH @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
119123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
UTAH383120219119
NO1930332813123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home NO
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 38 23 4 7
Isaiah Collier S 37 20 3 11
Walker Kessler S 34 19 13 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 26 19 4 0
Brice Sensabaugh 24 11 5 1
Kyle Filipowski 38 10 17 1
Drew Eubanks 19 10 8 0
Patty Mills 18 3 4 0
Cody Williams S 20 2 3 2
Elijah Harkless 10 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 44 45 8 4
Dejounte Murray S 45 26 9 11
Trey Murphy III S 45 24 7 2
Jordan Hawkins 21 18 1 0
Daniel Theis S 37 4 8 6
Jose Alvarado 17 3 2 2
Karlo Matkovic 15 2 3 2
Javonte Green S 26 1 3 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 15 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Layup (2 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes driving layup (Cody Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
14%
2 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
3 CJ McCollum NO
9%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
5 Yves Missi NO
8%
6 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
8%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
8 Daniel Theis NO
7%
9 Drew Eubanks UTAH
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
29%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 24.9 5.4 4.3
2 CJ McCollum NO 22.6 3.7 3.8
3 Dejounte Murray NO 20.5 5.9 7.9
4 Keyonte George UTAH 19.5 4.4 5.7
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.8 3.5 2.2
6 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.3 11.6 1.6
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 10.8 3.1 2.5
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 9.6 4.0 6.9
9 Yves Missi NO 9.3 7.1 1.5
10 Herbert Jones NO 8.8 3.1 3.9
11 Jose Alvarado NO 8.1 1.8 3.3
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.9 2.3 1.2
13 Drew Eubanks UTAH 7.7 6.0 1.4
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.7 2.9 1.0
15 Cody Williams UTAH 6.4 2.4 1.6
16 Daniel Theis NO 6.4 5.5 1.3
17 Javonte Green NO 6.4 3.8 1.3
18 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.1 4.2 1.7
19 Patty Mills UTAH 5.3 1.3 1.7
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.0 4.5 1.7
21 Jamal Cain NO 4.7 3.3 1.1
22 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.3 1.9 0.8
23 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 3.6 5.2 0.5
24 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.2 2.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.