NBA games

BOS @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
125–85
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29254328125
GS1821242285

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home GS
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 28 22 9 7
Kristaps Porzingis S 22 18 7 2
Jaylen Brown S 29 17 4 2
Payton Pritchard 22 14 2 9
Sam Hauser 21 11 2 1
Jrue Holiday S 27 10 4 1
Luke Kornet 12 8 7 2
Derrick White S 26 8 5 5
Jordan Walsh 8 6 2 0
Baylor Scheierman 4 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 27 18 3 4
Moses Moody 32 13 6 5
Quinten Post 14 9 1 3
Dennis Schroder S 17 7 0 1
Gui Santos 27 7 2 0
Lindy Waters III 19 6 4 2
Buddy Hield 22 6 2 2
Kevon Looney 16 5 7 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 18 5 5 4
Andrew Wiggins S 24 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
18%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
16%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
8 Dennis Schroder GS
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
44%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
10%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.4 7.9 5.1
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.0 6.2 5.5
3 Stephen Curry GS 23.8 5.1 5.5
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.4 6.8 1.9
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.6 5.0 2.5
6 Derrick White BOS 14.1 3.9 2.5
7 Dennis Schroder GS 12.8 2.8 4.6
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.3 3.1 2.6
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.8 4.2 4.1
10 Buddy Hield GS 10.4 3.2 2.3
11 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 9.6 9.1 2.2
12 Moses Moody GS 8.5 2.3 1.2
13 Al Horford BOS 7.9 4.7 1.7
14 Lindy Waters III GS 6.7 3.1 0.9
15 Sam Hauser BOS 5.7 2.5 1.0
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 5.0 1.2
17 Gary Payton II GS 5.6 4.0 1.2
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 5.4 1.4
19 Neemias Queta BOS 5.0 2.7 0.6
20 Gui Santos GS 4.1 2.5 1.3
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.2 1.7 0.7
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.0 1.8 0.7
23 Jaden Springer BOS 2.3 1.3 0.6
24 Pat Spencer GS 2.1 1.1 1.0
25 Quinten Post GS 1.9 0.6 0.3
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.