NBA games

PHX @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
92–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2719242292
CLE27323425118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CLE
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 31 23 7 1
Devin Booker S 32 15 3 4
Tyus Jones S 27 13 1 4
Grayson Allen 27 10 3 2
Damion Lee 8 9 2 1
Bradley Beal 25 5 3 4
Ryan Dunn S 20 4 3 1
Monte Morris 8 4 0 1
Nick Richards S 22 4 4 1
Bol Bol 8 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 30 33 5 5
Darius Garland S 25 16 2 7
Jarrett Allen S 22 12 11 2
Jaylon Tyson 15 10 5 2
Sam Merrill 22 10 2 1
Max Strus S 21 9 2 2
Dean Wade S 19 8 5 2
Georges Niang 23 8 6 1
Ty Jerome 20 8 1 1
Craig Porter Jr. 6 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 3-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
16%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
15%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Darius Garland CLE
12%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
6 Mason Plumlee PHX
9%
7 Ryan Dunn PHX
9%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
9%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Bradley Beal PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
18%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.1 4.7 7.5
2 Kevin Durant PHX 27.0 6.6 5.4
3 Darius Garland CLE 24.4 3.5 8.4
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.2 4.6 4.6
5 Bradley Beal PHX 16.4 3.7 3.3
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.0 10.9 2.1
7 Ryan Dunn PHX 12.1 5.9 1.4
8 Grayson Allen PHX 11.3 3.1 2.1
9 Tyus Jones PHX 9.7 2.7 5.5
10 Max Strus CLE 9.7 3.9 3.4
11 Ty Jerome CLE 8.6 2.6 2.9
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.4 2.8 1.8
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.1 4.1 2.5
14 Dean Wade CLE 7.6 5.7 1.4
15 Nick Richards PHX 7.4 6.0 1.3
16 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.6 7.4 2.0
17 Sam Merrill CLE 5.5 1.9 1.2
18 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.2 4.0 1.3
19 Monte Morris PHX 5.2 1.8 1.5
20 Bol Bol PHX 3.7 1.6 0.6
21 JT Thor CLE 3.3 1.1 0.4
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 3.0 0.6
23 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.6 1.6 0.7
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.6 1.3 0.8
25 Damion Lee PHX 2.2 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.