NBA games

ATL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
110–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL27352721110
NY26284025119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NY
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 35 27 3 6
De'Andre Hunter 30 22 0 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 14 9 2
Clint Capela 20 12 9 0
Jalen Johnson S 35 11 12 4
Vit Krejci S 33 11 2 4
Dyson Daniels S 31 10 4 3
Garrison Mathews 12 2 0 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 15 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 34 1 6
Mikal Bridges S 27 26 1 4
Josh Hart S 37 14 9 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 13 9 7
Cameron Payne 12 10 1 2
Miles McBride 20 9 3 3
OG Anunoby S 41 8 9 2
Landry Shamet 10 3 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 17 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes driving floating jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
4 Trae Young ATL
10%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
8 Clint Capela ATL
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Jericho Sims NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
27%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.5 3.6 6.8
2 Trae Young ATL 27.3 2.9 9.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.8 12.8 3.7
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.8 10.5 4.7
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.6 4.1 2.4
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.6 3.1 2.6
7 OG Anunoby NY 15.0 4.2 2.3
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.7 5.0 3.9
9 Josh Hart NY 14.3 11.4 5.8
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.8 9.2 2.2
11 Vit Krejci ATL 10.2 3.6 3.6
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 9.7 2.0 2.4
13 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.3 2.9 1.8
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.1 7.8 1.3
15 Cameron Payne NY 7.6 1.7 2.2
16 Miles McBride NY 7.5 2.4 2.6
17 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 6.0 2.8 0.5
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.9 4.1 1.0
19 David Roddy ATL 3.4 1.9 0.7
20 Jericho Sims NY 3.3 3.3 0.9
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.3 2.3 0.7
22 Landry Shamet NY 2.9 0.9 0.5
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 Tyler Kolek NY 2.4 0.9 0.8
25 Matt Ryan NY 2.1 0.7 0.4
26 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.4 0.7 0.2
27 Jacob Toppin NY 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.