NBA games

MIN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
106–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28262230106
MEM21222837108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MEM
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 32 4 3
Naz Reid 33 29 8 1
Rob Dillingham 17 15 3 2
Jaden McDaniels S 42 11 12 1
Mike Conley S 25 5 4 8
Julius Randle S 34 5 11 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 5 5 1
Rudy Gobert S 25 4 4 2
Luka Garza 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 24 11 0
Desmond Bane S 37 22 6 5
Ja Morant S 30 19 4 7
Jaylen Wells S 29 13 2 1
Brandon Clarke 16 7 5 0
Luke Kennard 20 7 4 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 14 6 2 3
GG Jackson 11 4 1 0
Santi Aldama 15 2 2 1
Jake LaRavia 15 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
4 Ja Morant MEM
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Zach Edey MEM
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
47%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.6 6.1 6.3
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.5 7.2 3.9
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.8 5.0 6.6
4 Ja Morant MEM 22.3 4.4 6.8
5 Julius Randle MIN 20.9 7.9 5.5
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.6 5.5 2.2
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.2 5.6 1.7
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.9 3.6 1.7
9 Luke Kennard MEM 11.7 4.0 3.7
10 Santi Aldama MEM 11.5 5.8 1.9
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.5 9.7 1.6
12 Zach Edey MEM 8.2 6.7 1.1
13 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 8.1 3.0 3.3
14 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.9 5.0 1.0
15 Mike Conley MIN 7.6 2.5 3.3
16 Jay Huff MEM 6.7 1.9 0.9
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.6 2.7 1.9
18 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.4 3.4 2.4
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.2 1.4 2.3
20 John Konchar MEM 4.4 5.0 1.3
21 Luka Garza MIN 3.8 1.3 0.6
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.6 1.5 0.8
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.5 1.6 0.7
24 Joe Ingles MIN 3.1 1.5 1.8
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.7 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.