NBA games

DET @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
107–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET40173317107
HOU2928231696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home HOU
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 32 9 7
Malik Beasley 30 17 0 1
Jalen Duren S 30 16 14 3
Ausar Thompson S 23 11 9 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 10 1 2
Marcus Sasser 13 8 3 2
Isaiah Stewart 18 6 8 1
Tobias Harris S 34 4 4 3
Ronald Holland II 16 3 1 2
Simone Fontecchio 12 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 38 20 5 2
Jalen Green S 30 19 4 4
Amen Thompson S 40 17 6 5
Alperen Sengun S 29 11 8 5
Cam Whitmore 20 10 6 2
Tari Eason 27 8 4 1
Jock Landale 10 6 3 0
Dillon Brooks S 30 5 0 0
Aaron Holiday 15 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes two point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Tobias Harris DET
8%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
6%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
9 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
6%
10 Ausar Thompson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
51%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.5 6.0 8.9
2 Jalen Green HOU 24.5 4.5 3.5
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.6 10.4 5.6
4 Amen Thompson HOU 17.2 10.5 3.5
5 Tobias Harris DET 16.8 6.0 2.8
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.6 3.4 5.9
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 14.1 2.5 1.6
8 Malik Beasley DET 13.7 3.1 2.0
9 Jalen Duren DET 12.5 10.3 2.0
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.3 3.8 2.0
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.3 5.2 1.5
12 Tari Eason HOU 11.1 5.8 1.5
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.6 4.0 1.4
14 Ausar Thompson DET 8.4 5.6 1.6
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.6 2.9 1.2
16 Ronald Holland II DET 6.2 2.1 1.2
17 Marcus Sasser DET 6.2 1.6 2.3
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.9 6.0 1.5
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.2 2.8 0.9
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.9 1.4 1.2
21 Paul Reed DET 4.6 3.0 1.2
22 Jeff Green HOU 4.3 1.4 0.6
23 Steven Adams HOU 4.0 5.9 1.0
24 Nate Williams HOU 3.6 1.2 0.7
25 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.3 2.1 0.8
26 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.1 1.4 0.8
27 Jock Landale HOU 1.3 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.