NBA games

DAL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
105–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27282822105
CHA24312728110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CHA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 41 33 4 3
Daniel Gafford S 34 31 15 3
P.J. Washington S 30 13 9 1
Naji Marshall 32 8 5 4
Klay Thompson S 30 7 2 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 31 7 5 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 19 6 8 1
Kessler Edwards 9 0 1 0
Maxi Kleber 14 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 32 23 5 2
LaMelo Ball S 38 23 7 9
Nick Smith Jr. S 30 19 3 1
Mark Williams S 30 13 13 2
Cody Martin 20 10 7 7
Moussa Diabate 18 10 2 0
Josh Okogie 19 5 4 1
Josh Green S 27 4 5 2
Seth Curry 16 3 0 1
Vasilije Micic 10 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:52 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
16%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
15%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
8%
8 Josh Green CHA
6%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
28%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.1 5.8 8.6
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.4 4.3 4.5
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.1 8.5 5.0
4 Mark Williams CHA 18.5 11.5 2.8
5 P.J. Washington DAL 15.9 7.3 2.6
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 15.1 3.4 4.7
7 Klay Thompson DAL 12.1 3.3 2.3
8 Naji Marshall DAL 10.4 3.7 2.9
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.1 7.3 1.2
10 Cody Martin CHA 8.1 4.0 2.0
11 Josh Green CHA 7.1 3.6 1.5
12 Seth Curry CHA 6.9 1.9 1.0
13 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.4 1.8 2.9
14 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.3 2.5 1.3
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.6 2.6 1.6
16 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 4.9 2.3 0.8
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.6 3.8 0.6
18 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.4 1.7 1.3
19 Josh Okogie CHA 4.3 2.6 0.6
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.4 2.2 0.7
21 Brandon Williams DAL 2.9 1.0 0.5
22 Taj Gibson CHA 2.0 1.8 0.5
23 Markieff Morris DAL 1.5 0.8 0.3
24 Jazian Gortman DAL 1.3 0.7 0.4
25 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.0 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.