NBA games

WSH @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
100–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH26222923100
SAC32302833123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home SAC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas 23 23 12 3
Corey Kispert 23 14 3 1
Kyle Kuzma S 33 13 7 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 33 11 4 0
Jordan Poole S 28 11 1 3
Bub Carrington S 27 6 6 3
Kyshawn George 24 6 3 3
Alex Sarr S 22 6 7 1
Justin Champagnie 10 6 1 1
Johnny Davis 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 32 29 18 4
DeMar DeRozan S 38 24 6 1
Malik Monk S 30 23 1 4
Keon Ellis 18 18 3 1
De'Aaron Fox S 35 12 5 13
Trey Lyles 20 4 5 0
Alex Len 16 4 4 2
Keegan Murray S 32 4 5 1
Kevin Huerter 9 3 2 1
Isaiah Crawford 3 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
20%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
3 Malik Monk SAC
11%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH
8%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
9 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
73%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
1%
Jumper
18%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.1 5.7 6.9
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.5 4.2 4.5
3 Malik Monk SAC 24.3 4.1 7.3
4 Jordan Poole WSH 24.0 4.5 4.5
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.3 15.2 7.4
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH 14.5 5.1 3.5
7 Alex Sarr WSH 13.6 7.5 2.3
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.5 6.5 1.7
9 Corey Kispert WSH 11.5 2.8 1.9
10 Keon Ellis SAC 11.1 3.4 1.9
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.9 4.0 3.5
12 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.2 8.0 1.9
13 Bub Carrington WSH 10.1 3.6 4.1
14 Kyshawn George WSH 9.4 3.4 1.9
15 Trey Lyles SAC 9.1 6.0 1.7
16 Jared Butler WSH 8.2 2.3 2.4
17 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.7 2.4 1.6
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.1 3.5 1.1
19 Doug McDermott SAC 3.5 0.6 0.5
20 Jae Crowder SAC 3.5 1.9 0.6
21 Alex Len SAC 2.7 2.6 0.8
22 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.3 1.1 0.5
23 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.3 0.7 0.8
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.3 1.2 0.5
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.2 2.5 0.2
26 Johnny Davis WSH 2.1 1.0 0.4
27 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 1.9 0.7 0.2
28 Anthony Gill WSH 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.