NBA games

CHI @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
102113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI34192425102
POR22313426113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home POR
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 39 27 4 5
Nikola Vucevic S 35 17 11 7
Patrick Williams S 26 15 3 1
Ayo Dosunmu 32 12 1 4
Coby White S 27 9 3 0
Matas Buzelis 15 7 3 0
Jalen Smith 13 7 3 0
Dalen Terry 16 6 3 0
Julian Phillips 5 2 1 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson S 38 25 7 8
Shaedon Sharpe 33 23 4 3
Deni Avdija S 35 20 12 3
Jerami Grant S 30 18 1 0
Deandre Ayton S 37 15 13 2
Dalano Banton 10 6 1 1
Jabari Walker 11 4 4 0
Kris Murray 17 2 2 2
Toumani Camara S 29 0 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Patrick Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
2 Zach LaVine CHI
12%
3 Deni Avdija POR
12%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
6 Toumani Camara POR
9%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
10 Jerami Grant POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
38%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 27.1 5.9 6.1
2 Coby White CHI 22.4 4.0 6.0
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.1 11.4 3.8
4 Deni Avdija POR 20.9 7.9 4.3
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.1 4.8 3.8
6 Scoot Henderson POR 16.2 3.8 6.3
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.1 4.7 5.8
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.7 5.1 2.6
9 Jerami Grant POR 13.3 4.3 2.3
10 Deandre Ayton POR 13.2 10.9 1.8
11 Josh Giddey CHI 11.4 8.8 5.7
12 Lonzo Ball CHI 9.1 3.7 3.8
13 Patrick Williams CHI 8.9 3.1 2.0
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.3 4.7 1.2
15 Kris Murray POR 7.1 3.2 1.6
16 Dalano Banton POR 6.4 2.0 1.8
17 Donovan Clingan POR 5.7 6.0 1.0
18 Jabari Walker POR 5.1 2.7 0.7
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.5 2.1 0.6
20 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.3 2.8 0.6
21 Duop Reath POR 4.2 1.6 0.8
22 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.0 1.5 1.0
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 1.4 1.3
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.9 1.4 0.7
25 Bryce McGowens POR 2.8 1.3 0.6
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.8 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.