NBA games

LAL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
102–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL26232825102
LAC32322824116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home LAC
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 35 25 5 11
Rui Hachimura S 33 19 7 1
Anthony Davis S 37 16 10 3
Austin Reaves S 34 14 2 3
Max Christie S 23 10 1 1
Dalton Knecht 16 10 4 1
Jaxson Hayes 13 4 2 2
Gabe Vincent 23 4 0 1
Christian Koloko 2 0 1 0
Bronny James 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 37 22 4 1
James Harden S 40 21 4 12
Ivica Zubac S 35 21 19 3
Kawhi Leonard S 24 19 1 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 9 4 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 15 8 0 3
Nicolas Batum 16 6 3 1
Amir Coffey 29 6 0 1
Mo Bamba 6 3 2 0
Cam Christie 0 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes dunk (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
3 Norman Powell LAC
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
6 James Harden LAC
8%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
8 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
9 Max Christie LAL
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
36%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.1 6.3 8.3
2 Austin Reaves LAL 23.6 4.9 7.8
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.9 11.8 3.9
4 James Harden LAC 22.1 4.4 8.7
5 Norman Powell LAC 21.7 4.0 2.3
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.4 12.2 2.5
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.3 4.4 1.7
8 Max Christie LAL 12.1 3.1 2.0
9 Amir Coffey LAC 10.9 2.7 1.3
10 Kawhi Leonard LAC 10.8 3.0 1.5
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.5 3.2 1.1
12 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.3 3.0 3.9
13 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.9 3.6 1.0
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.4 2.7 1.0
15 Bones Hyland LAC 7.4 1.7 2.2
16 Kris Dunn LAC 6.9 3.1 2.8
17 Terance Mann LAC 6.9 2.2 1.2
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.8 2.2 1.6
19 Shake Milton LAL 6.1 1.9 2.0
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.4 3.9 0.7
21 Mo Bamba LAC 4.4 4.2 0.7
22 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 2.3 0.7
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.8 2.8 1.0
24 Cam Christie LAC 3.6 1.6 0.6
25 Cam Reddish LAL 3.4 2.0 0.6
26 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.2 2.7 0.6
27 Jordan Miller LAC 3.2 1.6 0.9
28 Bronny James LAL 1.9 1.0 0.3
29 Christian Koloko LAL 1.7 2.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.