NBA games

BKN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
101–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN19302824101
OKC39302929127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home OKC
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 25 15 2 2
Tyrese Martin 24 15 6 2
Nic Claxton S 25 11 5 0
Noah Clowney S 28 9 4 0
D'Angelo Russell S 24 9 4 7
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 9 7 2
Tosan Evbuomwan 21 9 4 2
Jalen Wilson 24 8 3 2
Ziaire Williams S 23 7 5 2
Keon Johnson 23 6 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 27 3 10
Isaiah Joe S 22 24 1 1
Jaylin Williams S 27 14 8 5
Aaron Wiggins 26 12 3 5
Ousmane Dieng 21 12 3 2
Cason Wallace S 26 9 6 3
Alex Ducas 5 9 1 0
Branden Carlson 18 8 5 2
Alex Caruso 19 6 3 3
Dillon Jones 19 6 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
3 Ben Simmons BKN
10%
4 Ziaire Williams BKN
9%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
6 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
9 Keon Johnson BKN
8%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
25%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.4 4.6 7.3
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 21.1 4.2 3.7
3 Keon Johnson BKN 13.2 3.7 3.1
4 D'Angelo Russell BKN 12.2 3.2 5.4
5 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.9 3.6 2.0
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.7 4.3 2.1
7 Noah Clowney BKN 11.1 4.1 1.5
8 Cason Wallace OKC 10.9 3.4 3.3
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.7 5.1 2.0
10 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.4 4.0 2.7
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.3 3.4 1.4
12 Nic Claxton BKN 10.0 7.5 1.9
13 Ben Simmons BKN 10.0 5.1 7.1
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.1 2.5 1.5
15 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 8.9 3.7 1.2
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.4 6.8 1.9
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.5 2.6 2.2
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.0 5.0 1.7
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.5 1.1
20 Reece Beekman BKN 3.5 1.2 1.2
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.4 1.8 0.8
22 Branden Carlson OKC 3.4 1.9 0.8
23 Adam Flagler OKC 2.7 1.1 0.7
24 Alex Ducas OKC 2.4 1.0 0.6
25 Dillon Jones OKC 1.8 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.