NBA games

PHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
109–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI21293128109
MIL30293133123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIL
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 37 6 7
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 19 6 3
Ricky Council IV S 29 13 4 3
Adem Bona S 24 10 6 0
Eric Gordon S 30 10 1 6
Pete Nance 24 8 6 2
Justin Edwards 33 7 5 0
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 19 5 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 34 15 6
Damian Lillard S 40 25 5 4
Khris Middleton 25 13 5 8
Brook Lopez S 36 12 7 3
Taurean Prince S 24 11 2 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 20 9 3 2
Ryan Rollins 15 7 1 2
Gary Trent Jr. 23 6 2 2
Bobby Portis 19 6 8 3
Stanley Umude 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 10-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
5 Paul George PHI
8%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
7 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
6%
9 Ricky Council IV PHI
6%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
95%
Jumper
1%
Layup
3%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.3 13.0 7.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.6 3.4 6.4
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.6 4.0 6.5
4 Paul George PHI 19.9 5.7 4.7
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.5 6.5 2.1
6 Khris Middleton MIL 14.0 4.1 4.8
7 Brook Lopez MIL 12.6 4.7 2.0
8 Bobby Portis MIL 12.2 7.8 1.6
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.5 5.3 2.0
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.0 2.8 1.4
11 Eric Gordon PHI 7.6 2.0 1.4
12 Taurean Prince MIL 7.4 2.7 2.1
13 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.7 2.9 1.2
14 Justin Edwards PHI 6.5 2.6 1.2
15 Andre Drummond PHI 6.0 6.5 0.9
16 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.9 2.7 1.3
17 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.2 1.9 1.3
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.7 2.7 1.4
19 Adem Bona PHI 4.0 3.6 0.6
20 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.8 1.3 1.0
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.5 2.7 1.0
22 Delon Wright MIL 3.4 1.6 1.6
23 Pete Nance PHI 2.9 1.2 0.6
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.5 1.7 0.6
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.5 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.