NBA games

DEN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
113–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28263920113
ORL29232523100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home ORL
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Christian Braun S 36 20 11 2
Nikola Jokic S 30 20 14 10
Jamal Murray S 38 19 2 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 28 15 6 0
Russell Westbrook S 25 12 5 6
Aaron Gordon 22 9 4 0
Julian Strawther 26 7 3 1
Peyton Watson 12 4 2 1
DeAndre Jordan 16 4 7 0
Jalen Pickett 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 16 13 5
Anthony Black 28 14 1 5
Tristan da Silva S 31 12 4 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 12 1 4
Paolo Banchero S 29 10 7 5
Jonathan Isaac 12 10 6 1
Cole Anthony S 29 9 6 5
Trevelin Queen 24 8 1 2
Caleb Houstan 16 6 0 1
Cory Joseph 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Tristan da Silva ORL
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
6 Russell Westbrook DEN
9%
7 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
9 Christian Braun DEN
7%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
6%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.2 12.9 10.2
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.5 7.3 5.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.6 4.0 5.3
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.2 4.4 3.6
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 17.9 6.3 6.2
6 Cole Anthony ORL 16.9 4.7 4.3
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.4 5.9 1.8
8 Christian Braun DEN 11.8 4.2 1.5
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.6 6.3 1.9
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.4 4.6 2.1
11 Julian Strawther DEN 10.4 2.6 1.6
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.4 2.2 2.4
13 Anthony Black ORL 10.4 2.8 3.0
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.1 5.3 2.1
15 Peyton Watson DEN 9.4 4.3 1.5
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.6 5.7 1.2
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.8 1.9 1.3
18 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.2 2.5 1.9
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.8 5.1 0.8
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.8 3.4 1.6
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.7 1.2 0.9
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.0 1.3 1.5
23 Cory Joseph ORL 3.6 1.3 1.1
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.0 0.4
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.2 1.2 0.5
26 PJ Hall DEN 2.2 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.