NBA games

SA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
107–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30112739107
MIA20264636128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 35 23 3 2
Victor Wembanyama S 30 21 10 3
Stephon Castle S 27 11 4 1
Harrison Barnes S 31 10 5 2
Chris Paul S 28 10 4 9
Keldon Johnson 18 8 3 0
Tre Jones 16 5 2 3
Julian Champagnie 22 5 3 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 9 4 1 2
Sidy Cissoko 2 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware 34 25 8 2
Duncan Robinson S 28 21 5 2
Terry Rozier 31 20 4 5
Tyler Herro S 33 18 6 7
Nikola Jovic 24 14 2 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 22 12 6 1
Jimmy Butler III S 28 8 3 7
Bam Adebayo S 25 6 11 5
Pelle Larsson 2 2 0 0
Haywood Highsmith S 8 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Layup (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes driving layup (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Devin Vassell SA
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
6 Stephon Castle SA
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Chris Paul SA
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
10 Kevin Love MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
36%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.4 11.9 4.2
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.2 5.5 5.1
3 Devin Vassell SA 17.2 5.5 4.5
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 16.9 5.9 4.1
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.8 9.0 4.3
6 Nikola Jovic MIA 14.0 4.6 4.4
7 Keldon Johnson SA 13.6 5.0 1.6
8 Harrison Barnes SA 13.3 3.6 2.1
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.3 4.9 4.7
10 Stephon Castle SA 12.8 3.0 3.6
11 Terry Rozier MIA 12.8 4.6 3.0
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 6.3 1.2
13 Chris Paul SA 10.1 4.1 7.5
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.6 2.3 3.2
15 Julian Champagnie SA 8.1 2.8 1.2
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.1 3.6 1.9
17 Josh Richardson MIA 5.2 1.8 1.6
18 Tre Jones SA 4.8 2.4 3.2
19 Charles Bassey SA 4.6 5.1 0.6
20 Alec Burks MIA 4.6 1.7 1.0
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 2.0 0.7
22 Kevin Love MIA 4.1 2.4 1.0
23 Zach Collins SA 3.6 2.5 0.9
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.5 2.5 0.6
25 Josh Christopher MIA 3.4 1.2 1.6
26 Malaki Branham SA 3.1 1.2 0.8
27 Blake Wesley SA 2.9 1.6 1.9
28 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.8 1.6 1.0
29 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.7 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.