NBA games

HOU @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
125–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU25263638125
POR23272429103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home POR
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 29 26 5 1
Alperen Sengun S 31 23 15 6
Dillon Brooks S 37 22 6 3
Tari Eason 24 18 8 4
Cam Whitmore 27 12 10 3
Aaron Holiday 15 10 0 1
Fred VanVleet S 36 9 4 3
Reed Sheppard 5 3 1 1
Steven Adams 17 2 9 2
Nate Williams 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 31 21 5 11
Toumani Camara S 30 17 5 3
Anfernee Simons S 32 13 4 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 13 8 1
Jabari Walker 20 10 5 0
Jerami Grant S 25 7 4 1
Dalano Banton 21 7 3 2
Kris Murray 21 7 2 1
Robert Williams III S 20 4 4 3
Bryce McGowens 2 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Robert Williams III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Robert Williams III makes 5-foot two point shot (Anfernee Simons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
6 Jalen Green HOU
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
7%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 25.1 4.3 3.7
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.8 10.5 5.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.4 3.3 5.8
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.9 4.2 3.8
5 Amen Thompson HOU 17.7 10.7 3.4
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.8 3.6 6.2
7 Scoot Henderson POR 14.9 3.3 5.4
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.6 3.7 2.1
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.3 5.2 1.5
10 Toumani Camara POR 11.8 4.8 2.0
11 Tari Eason HOU 10.6 6.0 1.2
12 Jerami Grant POR 10.4 3.4 2.1
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.0 3.5 1.2
14 Kris Murray POR 6.1 2.9 1.5
15 Dalano Banton POR 5.9 1.6 1.7
16 Donovan Clingan POR 5.2 5.6 0.9
17 Robert Williams III POR 5.1 5.2 0.9
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.9 2.3 1.0
19 Jeff Green HOU 4.8 1.7 0.6
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.2 1.4 1.1
21 Duop Reath POR 4.0 1.3 0.6
22 Jabari Walker POR 3.9 2.1 0.6
23 Steven Adams HOU 3.7 5.4 0.9
24 Nate Williams HOU 3.4 1.0 0.6
25 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.9 1.8 0.8
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.5 1.1 0.7
27 Justin Minaya POR 2.4 1.0 0.5
28 Bryce McGowens POR 1.1 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.