NBA games

CLE @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
124–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE29312935124
MIN32281938117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIN
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 36 8 7
Darius Garland S 33 29 5 6
Georges Niang 29 15 10 1
Ty Jerome 22 15 4 4
Jarrett Allen S 36 14 4 1
Dean Wade S 27 8 5 2
Max Strus 28 5 6 3
Caris LeVert S 25 2 4 3
Sam Merrill 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 41 28 3 5
Julius Randle S 38 20 14 9
Rudy Gobert S 31 17 12 1
Naz Reid 26 16 2 4
Jaden McDaniels S 38 13 5 2
Rob Dillingham 18 12 0 2
Mike Conley S 23 9 3 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16 2 3 1
Joe Ingles 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 10-foot two point shot (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
19%
2 Julius Randle MIN
13%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
4 Darius Garland CLE
12%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Luka Garza MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
36%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
14%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.4 6.7 6.3
2 Darius Garland CLE 23.6 3.0 7.6
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.9 4.0 4.3
4 Julius Randle MIN 18.9 7.3 5.3
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.2 10.3 2.4
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.1 6.1 1.9
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.7 5.7 1.6
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.1 9.4 1.6
9 Caris LeVert CLE 9.7 3.4 3.1
10 Max Strus CLE 9.0 3.6 3.1
11 Ty Jerome CLE 7.9 2.4 2.8
12 Mike Conley MIN 7.8 2.4 3.4
13 Dean Wade CLE 7.0 5.3 1.5
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.9 2.8 2.1
15 Georges Niang CLE 6.6 1.9 1.8
16 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.5 1.5 2.0
17 Sam Merrill CLE 5.4 1.7 1.3
18 Luka Garza MIN 3.9 1.4 0.6
19 Josh Minott MIN 3.8 1.7 0.8
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.7 1.7 0.7
21 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.5 1.9
22 JT Thor CLE 2.9 1.0 0.3
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.8 2.9 0.5
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.8 1.3 0.7
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.8 2.4 0.4
26 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.7 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.