NBA games

WSH @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH29312727114
GS25283633122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home GS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 36 38 5 5
Kyle Kuzma S 31 22 6 4
Bub Carrington S 30 17 2 3
Alex Sarr S 30 11 9 2
Corey Kispert 30 10 4 0
Kyshawn George 30 7 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas 18 5 9 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 34 4 6 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 35 31 11 4
Stephen Curry S 34 26 5 6
Dennis Schroder S 32 20 1 4
Moses Moody 29 13 2 1
Gary Payton II 19 10 2 2
Kevon Looney 24 10 13 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 24 6 15 1
Buddy Hield 21 6 2 2
Lindy Waters III 11 0 0 0
Draymond Green S 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
11%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
3 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
11%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
5 Dennis Schroder GS
9%
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH
9%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Gui Santos GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
53%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
21%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.4 5.1 6.3
2 Jordan Poole WSH 23.1 4.3 4.5
3 Andrew Wiggins GS 16.9 5.2 2.8
4 Alex Sarr WSH 14.0 7.3 2.8
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH 13.6 4.8 3.2
6 Dennis Schroder GS 13.5 3.1 5.2
7 Corey Kispert WSH 11.9 2.7 2.1
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.8 8.2 2.0
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.7 3.9 3.4
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.4 9.5 2.4
11 Buddy Hield GS 10.7 3.3 2.5
12 Bub Carrington WSH 9.5 3.7 4.3
13 Kyshawn George WSH 8.8 3.6 1.9
14 Draymond Green GS 8.8 5.8 5.0
15 Jared Butler WSH 8.7 2.4 2.5
16 Moses Moody GS 8.5 2.1 1.3
17 Lindy Waters III GS 6.7 3.0 1.0
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.4 3.6 1.2
19 Gary Payton II GS 6.1 4.0 1.4
20 Kevon Looney GS 5.7 5.1 1.7
21 Gui Santos GS 4.6 2.6 1.5
22 Pat Spencer GS 3.0 1.4 1.2
23 Quinten Post GS 2.7 0.9 0.5
24 Johnny Davis WSH 2.3 1.0 0.5
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.3 2.7 0.3
26 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 1.9 0.7 0.2
27 Anthony Gill WSH 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.