NBA games

PHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
102–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI23362122102
IND28332826115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home IND
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 28 1 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 18 8 3
Ricky Council IV S 36 18 9 2
Adem Bona 19 12 6 1
Andre Drummond S 27 8 3 0
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 22 6 1 6
Eric Gordon S 30 4 1 5
Justin Edwards 22 4 3 1
Pete Nance 7 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 21 8 5
Myles Turner S 28 18 11 2
Aaron Nesmith 11 12 2 0
Ben Sheppard 21 12 3 2
Thomas Bryant 20 12 6 1
T.J. McConnell 16 10 2 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 9 5 9
Bennedict Mathurin S 25 8 7 1
Andrew Nembhard S 28 7 1 3
Obi Toppin 12 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Eric Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
3 Myles Turner IND
10%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Reggie Jackson PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
35%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.5 3.4 6.6
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.2 4.3 8.8
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.0 7.7 3.7
4 Paul George PHI 20.0 5.7 4.7
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.7 5.6 2.6
6 Myles Turner IND 15.6 6.1 1.7
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.3 6.2 1.9
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.4 4.3 5.7
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.7 5.4 2.1
10 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 3.7 1.3
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.0 3.0 1.2
12 Jarace Walker IND 7.8 3.6 1.2
13 Eric Gordon PHI 7.0 1.8 1.0
14 T.J. McConnell IND 6.9 2.8 4.6
15 Thomas Bryant IND 6.5 3.7 1.1
16 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 3.0 1.2
17 Justin Edwards PHI 5.9 2.3 1.1
18 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.3 2.1 1.0
19 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.6 1.6 1.3
20 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.8 1.3 1.0
21 Andre Drummond PHI 3.5 5.9 0.5
22 Adem Bona PHI 3.1 3.2 0.6
23 Pete Nance PHI 1.8 1.0 0.3
24 RayJ Dennis IND 1.7 1.0 0.5
25 Johnny Furphy IND 1.5 1.1 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.5 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.