NBA games

ATL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
119–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
ATL2131213115119
BOS3315302611115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BOS
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 39 28 4 11
Dyson Daniels S 40 23 4 4
Onyeka Okongwu 32 19 13 2
De'Andre Hunter 32 16 6 1
Jalen Johnson S 38 14 13 3
Vit Krejci S 26 7 2 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 23 7 3 2
Clint Capela S 21 3 9 1
Garrison Mathews 14 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 43 24 11 8
Jayson Tatum S 43 23 8 7
Derrick White S 43 21 8 2
Payton Pritchard 33 20 6 1
Luke Kornet S 31 17 7 2
Jrue Holiday S 30 8 6 1
Neemias Queta 22 2 4 0
Sam Hauser 20 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point shot (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
20%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
8%
6 Trae Young ATL
8%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
9 Derrick White BOS
6%
10 David Roddy ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 26.2 3.0 10.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.9 8.0 5.5
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.2 5.9 5.7
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.6 10.1 4.7
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.4 7.0 2.0
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.7 3.7 2.1
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.2 5.5 3.9
8 Derrick White BOS 13.2 4.0 2.9
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.1 4.4 4.1
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.4 3.0 3.1
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.7 9.0 1.9
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 9.9 2.3 2.3
13 Vit Krejci ATL 9.1 3.5 3.3
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.6 7.8 1.2
15 Al Horford BOS 8.1 4.8 1.9
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.8 3.0 1.7
17 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 6.4 3.0 0.6
18 Sam Hauser BOS 6.3 2.4 1.1
19 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 5.3 1.1
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.7 2.8 0.6
21 David Roddy ATL 4.0 2.2 0.8
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.4 1.9 0.7
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.2 2.0 0.7
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.5 1.5 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 1.4 0.6
26 Dominick Barlow ATL 0.9 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.