NBA games

PHX @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
125–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30313727125
DET29313526121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DET
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 36 7 5
Devin Booker S 42 35 5 3
Nick Richards 29 21 11 1
Ryan Dunn S 29 12 8 1
Grayson Allen 29 7 3 3
Royce O'Neale 16 5 6 1
Mason Plumlee S 13 4 6 1
Tyus Jones S 31 4 3 10
Oso Ighodaro 5 1 1 0
Monte Morris 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 37 21 5 2
Cade Cunningham S 35 20 6 11
Jalen Duren S 25 15 10 2
Malik Beasley 25 14 2 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 31 12 2 0
Marcus Sasser 17 11 4 2
Ronald Holland II 16 9 2 1
Ausar Thompson S 19 6 4 0
Paul Reed 8 6 3 2
Simone Fontecchio 13 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Dunn · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Ryan Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
48%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.2 6.4 5.3
2 Cade Cunningham DET 26.0 5.8 9.4
3 Devin Booker PHX 25.8 4.4 8.0
4 Tobias Harris DET 15.4 6.4 3.0
5 Malik Beasley DET 14.3 3.4 2.2
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 14.0 2.9 1.9
7 Jalen Duren DET 12.4 11.3 2.2
8 Ryan Dunn PHX 11.6 5.6 1.3
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.3 3.6 1.7
10 Tyus Jones PHX 9.2 2.6 5.0
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.0 6.0 1.8
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.9 3.8 2.4
13 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.6 3.1 1.3
14 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.4 1.7 2.4
15 Ronald Holland II DET 7.0 2.3 1.3
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.6 6.0 1.8
17 Marcus Sasser DET 6.1 1.8 2.4
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.8 7.1 2.3
19 Monte Morris PHX 5.8 1.9 1.6
20 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.3 3.8 1.3
21 Nick Richards PHX 5.0 5.0 0.8
22 Bol Bol PHX 4.0 1.8 0.6
23 Paul Reed DET 3.4 2.4 1.2
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.6 1.7 0.9
25 Damion Lee PHX 1.8 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.