NBA games

BKN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
101–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN23222333101
LAL24272130102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home LAL
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell 27 19 6 8
Ziaire Williams S 25 15 4 3
Tosan Evbuomwan 27 15 6 2
Keon Johnson S 19 13 1 1
Noah Clowney S 31 11 5 1
Jalen Wilson 27 11 5 2
Nic Claxton S 30 7 8 2
Ben Simmons S 27 6 5 7
Tyrese Martin 14 3 0 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 1 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 37 38 3 3
LeBron James S 35 29 7 8
Gabe Vincent 29 10 1 3
Rui Hachimura S 32 10 6 4
Max Christie S 33 7 3 3
Jaxson Hayes S 33 6 9 1
Dalton Knecht 18 2 1 1
Shake Milton 7 0 0 1
Trey Jemison III 15 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Max Christie LAL
10%
3 LeBron James LAL
9%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
8 Keon Johnson BKN
7%
9 Tyrese Martin BKN
7%
10 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
31%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.3 6.4 8.8
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.3 11.7 4.1
3 Austin Reaves LAL 22.1 5.4 8.7
4 Cameron Johnson BKN 21.2 3.9 3.8
5 Max Christie LAL 14.1 3.1 1.9
6 Keon Johnson BKN 13.4 3.8 3.3
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.1 3.9 1.6
8 D'Angelo Russell BKN 11.3 2.9 4.7
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.7 2.9 1.4
10 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.4 4.1 2.8
11 Noah Clowney BKN 10.3 3.8 1.4
12 Nic Claxton BKN 10.1 7.8 1.8
13 Ben Simmons BKN 10.1 5.0 7.4
14 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.5 4.5 1.9
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.7 6.6 2.0
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.0 2.6 1.2
17 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 7.8 3.1 1.1
18 Shake Milton LAL 7.7 2.3 2.2
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.6 2.3 1.6
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.6 3.8 0.7
21 Reece Beekman BKN 4.1 1.3 1.3
22 Cam Reddish LAL 3.6 2.1 0.8
23 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.5 1.9 0.5
24 Bronny James LAL 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.