NBA games

CHA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
125–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA36372527125
CHI29423220123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CHI
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 32 26 1 9
Miles Bridges S 32 21 4 3
Mark Williams S 33 19 19 3
Seth Curry 18 15 2 1
Nick Smith Jr. S 26 15 5 1
Vasilije Micic 19 9 3 4
Josh Green S 30 8 3 2
Cody Martin 21 7 1 1
Tidjane Salaun 14 3 3 2
Moussa Diabate 15 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 34 40 13 3
Zach LaVine S 35 19 6 8
Coby White S 33 18 5 8
Ayo Dosunmu 28 9 5 4
Dalen Terry 6 6 0 1
Jalen Smith 14 6 4 1
Lonzo Ball 25 6 3 3
Julian Phillips 18 6 4 0
Josh Giddey S 26 6 5 5
Patrick Williams S 17 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Mark Williams makes 1-foot layup (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
17%
2 Coby White CHI
14%
3 Mark Williams CHA
13%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
12%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
7 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
8 Seth Curry CHA
7%
9 Josh Green CHA
6%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
4%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
40%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 27.9 5.6 6.0
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.6 6.5 9.1
3 Miles Bridges CHA 22.8 9.0 5.2
4 Coby White CHI 21.9 3.6 5.9
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.3 11.0 3.8
6 Mark Williams CHA 18.3 11.2 2.7
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.2 4.4 5.6
8 Josh Giddey CHI 12.9 9.6 5.9
9 Patrick Williams CHI 9.1 3.1 1.9
10 Cody Martin CHA 8.6 4.5 2.3
11 Jalen Smith CHI 8.4 4.5 1.1
12 Lonzo Ball CHI 7.8 3.2 3.5
13 Vasilije Micic CHA 7.7 2.1 3.0
14 Josh Green CHA 7.6 3.7 1.4
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.1 2.4 1.4
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.0 4.0 1.5
17 Seth Curry CHA 5.6 1.5 0.8
18 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.2 2.2 0.8
19 Josh Okogie CHA 4.8 2.6 0.7
20 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.5 3.2 0.5
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.4 1.2 0.8
22 KJ Simpson CHA 4.2 1.5 1.5
23 Julian Phillips CHI 3.8 1.6 0.5
24 Moussa Diabate CHA 3.3 2.9 0.4
25 Dalen Terry CHI 3.3 1.5 1.4
26 Taj Gibson CHA 3.1 2.5 0.8
27 Chris Duarte CHI 2.8 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.